By Abbas Djavadi – The US will lose its single super power role, but remain the most powerful nation, though less dominant. A global multipolar system will emerge with the rise of China, India, and others. The power and influence of Russia, Brazil, but also Indonesia, Turkey, and Iran will probably grow.
This and much more could be found in the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2025 — A Transformed World, a 120-page comprehensive research pointing to probable (though not certain) trends of the world development in the next 15 or so years. The research is based on information gathered from numerous think tanks, consulting firms, academic institutions and hundreds of experts inside and outside the US.
In the new world order, more countries may be attracted to China’s alternative model rather than Western models of political and economic development. Investment in economic well-being will increase incentives towards geopolitical stability. Countries like Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan will face continued instability and state failure unless employment conditions change considerably.
Terrorism will not disappear from the Middle East by 2025, but its appeal could decrease if economic growth continues and unemployment is reduced.
Turkey will be stronger than now, both in political and economic terms, even without increased chances of an EU membership. She will, however, probably move more in the direction of the Muslim world and distance herself more from the West.
With its oil and gas revenues, Iran will augment its level of national power. Fears about a nuclear-armed Iran may trigger an arms race accompanied by likely turbulences threatening unintended escalation and broader conflict. “Revival of economic growth, a more prosperous Iraq, and resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute could engender some stability as the region deals with a strengthening Iran and global transition away from oil and gas.”
It is worth the time and effort to read the report. It’s not only about politics and economy, but also climate change, technology, demographics, and many more topics of importance for the international trends in the next 15 years.